Week of February 11, 2019
By Garrick Brown
Garrick’s 2018 Predictions Report Card
In an age of endless data streams and 24/7 news cycles, accountability seems to be slipping through our fingers. After all, how often do we actually look back at someone’s predictions to see whether they actually knew what they were talking about?
That said, the overwhelming majority of true economists and analysts are trying their best to get it right. It is our science, our religion and our trade. And, let’s not forget the difficulty of predicting anything the further you move out on any given timeline. As Albert Einstein once said, “When the number of factors coming into play in a phenomenological complex is too large, scientific method in most cases fails. One need only think of the weather, in which case the prediction for even a few days ahead is impossible.” (Of course, he said this in the 1930s.)
I honestly believe 99% of prognosticators are doing their best to get it right. But that leaves the one percent whose bold predictions garner headlines, but for which they are rarely held accountable.
In this issue of Newsline, I’ll share my Top Ten predictions for 2018 and will give myself a report card for accuracy.
Without further ado, let the grading begin….
So, how did I do? On a pass/fail basis, I hit nine out of ten. However, on the issue of defaults, I don’t want to be too generous. In other words, I just squeezed into a B+.(That said, I suspect if this were a bell curve I would have done better.) Sadly, I don’t see a lot of other prognosticators with the guts to hold themselves accountable.
This post is commentary from the latest edition of our Cushman & Wakefield Retail Newsline, which you can subscribe to for free by e-mailing firstname.lastname@example.org.
Garrick Brown serves as Vice President, Retail Intelligence for Cushman & Wakefield throughout the Americas. He is one of the leading retail real estate analysts in the United States; speaking frequently at industry events and regularly quoted on retail matters by the Wall Street Journal, the CBS Evening News, NBC News, CNBC, National Public Radio, Women’s Wear Daily and dozens of Business Journals and other industry publications.