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The Ring of Registers: Retailers expecting a happy 2015 holiday season

ShopPositive signs point to it being a happy holiday season for retailers both nationally and locally, according to various reports.

A Cushman & Wakefield analysis of U.S. retailers predicts a spike in consumer spending of about 4.1 percent. Lower unemployment and a drop in gas prices will come as welcome boosts to retail, the report shows.

The National Retail Federation’s latest survey shows holiday shoppers plan to spend an average of $463 on family members, up from $458 last year. That figure was the highest in survey history. NRF also reports that average spending per person is expected to reach $805.

According to Metro Phoenix Q3 2015 figures released by Cushman & Wakefield, it appears it’s “back in business” for Valley retailers as the market posted its 16th consecutive quarter of declining vacancy, down to 11.1 percent. Neighborhood and community centers drew the most leasing activity.

The Chandler/Gilbert, Scottsdale, Central Phoenix and Northwest Phoenix submarkets accounted for 83 percent of the total net absorption for the quarter, according the Cushman & Wakefield research. All but two of the city’s retail submarkets posted positive net absorption during the three-month period.

In Metro Phoenix the retail resurgence has been primarily notable in the restaurant industry. “Economic recovery has brought more disposable income, and people are dining out far more often,” says Brent Mallonee, a Vice President in the Phoenix office of Cushman & Wakefield. “Metro Phoenix is booming with new restaurant concepts.”

NRF expects sales in November and December (excluding autos, gas and restaurants) to increase a hefty 3.7 percent to $630.5 billion — significantly higher than the 10-year average of 2.5 percent. Online sales are forecast to increase between 6 and 8 percent to as much as $105 billion. Retailers are expected to hire between 700,000 and 750,000 seasonal workers this holiday season, in line with last year’s 714,000 holiday positions

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