By Jason Tolliver
Since the mid-1990s, the North American industrial market has experienced a record-setting run. And while we’re forecasting another strong few years in the sector, trade policy has been a topic of buzz and concern.
In case you haven’t been keeping a close eye on NAFTA negotiations, the deadline to finalize a renegotiated treaty is looming, and many are questioning the impact that politics and policymaking will have on the performance of the North American industrial market.
I recently elaborated on this topic in a contribution for Area Development.
The truth is that the fate of NAFTA, and any resulting shifts in commercial real estate demand, will take time to unfold. We can speculate on what would happen in the absence of the treaty, but predicting with certainty what changes to commercial real estate would occur is difficult because it is impossible to know what tariff regime would replace it.
My take away? Negotiators seem far from reaching consensus on any of these issues in the next few months, and therefore, trade policy will remain the greatest risk to the North American industrial outlook.
Jason Tolliver is a commercial real estate economist and attorney with over two decades of experience in regional, national, and international economic development, law, and economic analysis. As Head of Industrial Research for the Americas, Jason provides guidance to Cushman & Wakefield’s research professionals in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Chile and Argentina. He also works collaboratively with his global counterparts in Europe and Asia Pacific to provide clients global, forward-looking advice on macroeconomic trends affecting business and commercial real estate.
For more information, please visit cushwakeindustrial.com.