The Current Conditions component of the Index of Consumer Sentiment is one of the better indicators of consumer spending. It is suggesting that consumers feel wealthier and better off in general today than they have in many years…If they begin to increase their spending more rapidly, it will boost the entire US and global economy.
In a generally good first quarter for Europe, we saw better economic and financial market news and much improved confidence which started to produce a change in strategy, with parts of the investment community going “risk-on”. However, starting with Italy’s indecisive election and moving on to the Cypriot “bank sweep”, confidence has been dented in [...]
By Eric Berkman and Andrew Asbill Capital Markets, Washington, D.C. The champagne at election-night celebrations had barely lost its fizz when Senator-elect Tim Kaine of Virginia gave a sobering warning about the fierce financial hangover that is looming. Talking to Matt Lauer on NBC’s Today Show, Kaine reminded us that the fiscal cliff will still [...]
The Greek election result last month eased us back from the edge of a euro collapse but we still can’t say we have a clear view of where we go from here. The new Greek government may have to soft peddle on its demands to renegotiate its bailout for example- at least ahead of the [...]
Forget Spain for now, events in Greece over the next few days will be setting the tone for Europe for better or for worse. Greek voters go back to the polls on Sunday and clearly face a tough choice, caught between a rock and a hard place. Surveys have suggested growing support for pro-bailout parties [...]
Hopes that the Eurozone debt crisis was on its way to being resolved have clearly been hit by recent election results and this continues to test the nerves of the property market, with the opening quarter seeing a fall in leasing and investment activity that was far from limited to just the most indebted markets [...]
Optimism is Slowly Returning Two important segments of the economy: consumers and small businesses, are getting more optimistic. In surveys released last week by the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) and the University of Michigan, the measures of confidence both reached their highest level since the recession of 2007-2009 began. The NFIB survey measures [...]
The US Labor Department reported this morning that the economy added 243,000 payroll jobs in January, the largest increase in employment since last April. In the private sector payrolls increased by 257,000, bringing total private sector employment growth over the last six months to 1.06 million persons. The unemployment rate declined to 8.3% from 8.5% [...]
Recent events in Europe have been deeply destabilising but in time they could potentially lead to some quite welcome changes and could also produce some surprises. Starting with the latest “solution”, a deepening of fiscal links and controls between Eurozone members, this has been widely criticised for a lack of detail and also because it [...]
The latest Cushman & Wakefield Occupier Conference in London revealed new research, the Insight 500 survey, emphasising the negative impact global economic uncertainty was having on corporate confidence and decision making. However, the conference was also warned by broadcaster Rene Carayol not to get too downhearted by overly negative media coverage. What is more, it was [...]