• Bay Area

Retail Newsline: Same Store Sales Up/Confidence Down…Huh?

By Garrick Brown, Vice President of Research – West Region

The top story of same store sales SalesDataJulylikely coming in at higher levels than expected appears to have been the case… at least depending on the analysts.  Click here to see Thomsen Reuters estimates vs. actuals.  They were anticipating a jump of 0.1% in July. The index they use (they just track a select group of retailers each month) came in three times that at 0.3%. The boost most other Wall Street excel jockeys are reporting are all in that same general range.  Not bad!  Yet it comes as consumers simultaneously reported less confidence in July.

The Conference Board’s Index of Consumer Confidenceplummeted in July from 99.8 to 90.9. So what’s that all about?  That’s about consumers being jittery over what they are hearing about Greece and China mostly.  And what it really is about is the fact that the correlation between consumer confidence data and consumer spending data is a tenuous one (and remember the numbers that are up are same store sales—we don’t have actual overall consumer spending tallies for July yet).

The fact is that the relationship between consumer confidence and all of these sales metrics, whether we are talking about same store sales or consumer confidence is challenged because consumers often say (and feel) one thing while engaging in completely different behaviors. Look for consumer confidence to rebound hard next month.  Let’s just hope that consumer spending and same store sales also keep posting gains.

In the meantime, our good friend Mike Palenchar of the MR Group has provided us with the latest detailed same store comparables for the retail sector. (You can also click the thumbnail image above). Thanks again Mike!

There are a couple of people out there who track and disseminate same store sales data, but none that are so comprehensive in their coverage.  Mike (mpalench@columbus.rr.com) also happens to be one of the top retail talent recruiters in the business. Mike has been active in the industry since 1999. His company specializes in identifying top talent for mid to upper level positions in the retail and building industries nationally.  He’s helped a lot of people I know some great positions and he is a good friend to the Newsline.  You can get on his mailing list for same store sales data by dropping him a line. He puts out a great monthly report that is free.

 

This post is from the latest weekly edition of our DTZ Retail – Terranomics Retail Newsline, which you can subscribe to for free by e-mailing garrick.brown@dtz.com  

 

BrownGarrick joined DTZ (Cassidy Turley) in October 2010. He serves as Vice President, Research in the Western US for DTZ as well as our retail division in Northern California, DTZ Retail – Terranomics. He speaks frequently at industry events and has been a keynote speaker at symposiums, conferences and market forecasting events for groups like the Appraisal Institute, Urban Land Institute, CREW, ICSC and PRSM. He is also a member of Lambda Alpha International, an invitation-only land use society for those who are involved in the ownership, management, regulation and conservation of land, but also those who are involved in its development, redevelopment and preservation.

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